Can a single person make a global impact?

Or does everything significant happen solely because of inevitable macro trends?

Answer: an individual can make a global difference if three preconditions are met:

  1. Non-zero probability of the desired goal. Genghis Khan couldn’t fly to the moon, because the required set of scientific discoveries and engineering work would not be achievable in his lifetime.
  2. Having the motivation and skills to achieve the change – both need to be previously developed via emotional and intellectual experiences respectively. Native Americans didn’t have the skills to defeat the conquistadors.
  3. Focused, intelligent, high intensity work towards the goal. Brexit wouldn’t happen if not for a social engineering campaign by a small group of competent people.

Question: But aren’t all these preconditions caused by those inevitable macro trends?

Answer: first one yes, second partly, third no. So no.

Why? Imagine that any of the individuals below didn’t exist, or replace them with a more typical contemporary. Would events have turned out the same?